If you're planning to buy gold this festive season, you're probably asking yourself the same question thousands of Indians are googling right now: "Should I buy gold on Dhanteras, or will prices drop after Diwali?" It's a valid concern, especially when you're about to spend lakhs of rupees on something that's both an emotional purchase and a financial investment.
Let me share what I've learned after researching market trends, talking to jewelers, and analyzing years of price data. The answer isn't as simple as yes or no, but by the end of this article, you'll know exactly what to expect and how to make the smartest decision for your family.
The Big Question: Will Gold Rate Decrease After Diwali?
Here's the honest truth: gold prices typically drop by 2-5% in the weeks following Diwali, but this isn't guaranteed in 2025. Let me explain why.
Every year, gold demand in India spikes dramatically during the festival season. We're talking about a massive surge—jewelers see their highest sales between Dhanteras and Diwali. This increased demand naturally pushes prices slightly higher than normal. Once the festivals end, demand cools down, and prices often moderate.
But here's the catch for 2025: global factors are playing a much bigger role than usual. International gold prices hit $4,000 per ounce for the first time ever in October 2025. The rupee has weakened against the dollar. Central banks worldwide are buying gold aggressively. These aren't temporary festival trends—these are structural changes that could keep prices elevated even after Diwali passes.
Think of it like this: the festival season might add a small premium of ₹1,000-2,000 per 10 grams, but the overall price increase of ₹40,000+ per 10 grams over the past year has nothing to do with Dhanteras demand. That's driven by global economic uncertainty, and those forces won't disappear on October 22nd.
Expected Gold Price in Diwali 2025: What the Numbers Tell Us
Right now, as I'm writing this in mid-October, 24-karat gold is trading around ₹1,23,000 per 10 grams in major Indian cities. By Dhanteras (October 18) and Diwali (October 21), we might see prices inch up to ₹1,24,000-1,25,000 due to peak demand.
But what happens in November and December? Financial analysts are predicting gold could trade anywhere between ₹1,20,000 and ₹1,27,000 per 10 grams through year-end. That's not a drop—that's essentially sideways movement with lots of volatility.
Goldman Sachs, one of the world's leading investment banks, has forecasted gold reaching $5,000 per ounce by 2026. Other experts suggest we might see some consolidation first, with prices stabilizing around current levels before the next major move upward.
Here's my take after looking at all this data: if gold drops after Diwali, you might save ₹2,000-3,000 per 10 grams at most. On a typical purchase of 20 grams of jewelry, that's ₹4,000-6,000 in savings. Now ask yourself: is that worth missing the auspicious muhurat and the emotional significance of buying gold on Dhanteras?
For some people, absolutely yes—if you're purely an investor and tradition doesn't matter much to you. But for most Indian families, the cultural and spiritual value of a Dhanteras purchase far exceeds saving a few thousand rupees.
Dhanteras Gold Buying Muhurat 2025: Timing Your Purchase Right
Speaking of auspicious timing, let's talk about when exactly you should buy gold on Dhanteras if you've decided to go ahead with the purchase.
Dhanteras 2025 falls on Saturday, October 18th. The day is already perfect for shopping because it's a weekend, so you won't need to rush after work. But within that day, specific time windows are considered extra auspicious.
The best time to buy gold: 7:31 PM to 9:29 PM
This two-hour window is called Vrishabha Kaal or the Taurus ascendant period. In Vedic astrology, this is when the cosmic energies align perfectly for purchases that bring lasting wealth. Think of it as the VIP hour for gold shopping—everything you buy during this time is believed to multiply and stay with your family for generations.
The good time: 5:54 PM to 8:22 PM
This broader window is called Pradosh Kaal, the post-sunset period. It overlaps with Vrishabha Kaal, so basically, any time after sunset until about 9:30 PM is excellent for gold purchases. This is when Goddess Lakshmi is most receptive to prayers and offerings.
Avoid: 12:15 PM to 1:45 PM
This is Rahu Kaal on Dhanteras day—an inauspicious period when it's better to stay away from major purchases or new beginnings. Most traditional families won't even step into a jewelry store during these hours.
Now, here's some practical advice from someone who's been through the Dhanteras shopping rush: don't wait until 7:30 PM to start shopping! By that time, the stores will be packed, your favorite designs might be sold out, and you'll be standing in line for billing when the muhurat window closes.
Instead, visit the store earlier in the day, select your jewelry, negotiate the price, and ask them to keep it aside for you. Then return during the muhurat timing just to complete the payment and take delivery. Many jewelers are happy to accommodate this—it helps them manage the evening rush too.
Dhanteras Gold Shopping: Smart Strategies to Save Money
Whether prices drop after Diwali or not, you can still save significant money on your Dhanteras gold shopping with these strategies I've picked up over the years.
Compare Before You Commit
This is the golden rule—pun intended. Visit at least three different jewelers before making your final decision. Not for the gold rate (that's pretty much the same everywhere), but for the making charges. I've seen making charges vary from 8% to 25% for similar designs at different stores. On a ₹1 lakh purchase, that's a difference of ₹17,000!
Last year, my cousin was about to buy a gold chain for ₹85,000 at her regular jeweler. I convinced her to check two more stores. The same weight and design? ₹78,000 at another store with lower making charges. She saved ₹7,000 in 30 minutes of extra shopping.
Negotiate Making Charges Like a Pro
Here's a secret many people don't know: making charges are highly negotiable. The gold rate is fixed based on international markets, but making charges have huge margins built in—typically 30-40% profit for the jeweler.
Start by saying something like, "Your competitor quoted me 10% making charges for a similar design. Can you match that?" Even if they don't match exactly, they'll often come down by 2-3 percentage points. On a ₹1.5 lakh purchase, that's ₹3,000-4,500 in your pocket.
Don't be shy about this. Jewelers expect negotiation during festival season. It's part of the game.
Consider Gold Coins for Pure Investment
If your main goal is investment rather than wearing jewelry, skip the necklaces and bangles altogether. Buy BIS-certified gold coins instead.
Why? A 10-gram gold coin costs around ₹1,23,000 plus maybe ₹100-200 in making charges. The same weight in jewelry will cost ₹1,35,000-1,45,000 after adding 10-20% making charges. That's a difference of ₹12,000-22,000 for the exact same amount of gold.
Plus, when you sell gold coins, you'll recover 95-99% of their value. Jewelry? You'll be lucky to get 70-80% because you lose all those making charges.
Check Your Credit Card Offers
Many banks run special cashback offers during Dhanteras. I've seen offers ranging from 2% to 5% cashback on gold purchases. On a ₹2 lakh purchase, that's ₹4,000-10,000 back in your account within a few weeks.
Check your credit card app or call customer service before you go shopping. Some offers require prior activation.
Understanding the Real Cost: Beyond Just Gold Rates
When you're doing Dhanteras gold shopping, remember that the gold rate you see advertised is just the starting point. Your final bill will be much higher, and you need to understand each component.
Let's say you're buying a 20-gram gold necklace. Here's how the math typically works:
Base gold cost: ₹1,12,900 (22K) × 2 = ₹2,25,800
Making charges (12%): ₹27,096
GST on gold (3%): ₹6,774
GST on making charges (5%): ₹1,355
Your total: ₹2,61,025
See how a ₹2,25,800 gold purchase becomes ₹2,61,025? That's an additional ₹35,225 or 15.6% extra. This is why making charges matter so much—they directly impact your total outflow.
Will Gold Prices Really Drop? What History Tells Us
I've analyzed gold prices for the past five Diwali seasons to see if there's a consistent pattern. Here's what I found:
In 2020, gold prices dropped about 3% in the month following Diwali. In 2021, they actually increased by 2% (so much for post-Diwali drops!). In 2022, prices fell by about 4%. In 2023, they stayed flat with minimal movement. In 2024, they increased by 1.5% even after the festival.
The pattern? There is no reliable pattern.
Sometimes prices drop, sometimes they don't. What determines the movement isn't the festival calendar—it's global economic conditions, US Federal Reserve policy, geopolitical tensions, and currency movements.
For 2025 specifically, I think prices will stay elevated because:
The US Fed is cutting interest rates, making gold more attractive
The rupee remains weak against the dollar
Global tensions (multiple ongoing conflicts) support safe-haven demand
Central banks continue buying gold aggressively
Even if we see a small dip in November, I doubt it'll be significant enough to justify waiting if you're buying for traditional reasons.
Making Your Decision: Should You Buy or Wait?
After everything we've discussed, here's my practical advice based on your situation:
Buy on Dhanteras if:
You value tradition and auspicious timing
You're buying jewelry you'll actually wear
The cultural significance matters to your family
You're comfortable with current prices
You need the gold for upcoming weddings or events
Consider waiting if:
You're purely investing (not emotional purchase)
You can wait 2-3 months for potential savings
Missing the muhurat doesn't bother you
You're comfortable with the uncertainty
You're buying large quantities (100+ grams)
For most Indian families, I'd say go ahead with your Dhanteras gold shopping. The peace of mind, the blessings, the family tradition—these have value beyond what shows up on a price chart. A potential saving of ₹3,000-5,000 per 10 grams doesn't justify missing an occasion that comes once a year.
Final Thoughts: Beyond Price, There's Purpose
As I finish writing this, I'm reminded of what my grandmother used to say: "Gold bought on Dhanteras with devotion is worth more than gold bought at a discount with doubt."
She was right. When you buy gold during the auspicious muhurat, bring it home, place it before Goddess Lakshmi, light diyas around it, and pray with your family—that moment creates memories and strengthens bonds that no price drop can match.
Yes, be smart about your purchase. Compare prices, negotiate hard, verify hallmarks, and understand what you're paying for. But don't let the fear of a possible small price drop rob you of participating in a beautiful tradition that millions of Indians will celebrate together on October 18th.
The expected gold price in Diwali 2025 might fluctuate, but the value of tradition remains constant. Make your decision with both your head and your heart, and whatever you choose will be right for you.
Happy Dhanteras shopping, and may Goddess Lakshmi bless your home with prosperity!
